A geographic intelligence layer for NHS commissioners. Identifies where concentrations of emerging frailty are most likely to be, then routes precision screening to those communities — before crisis, not after.
You don't need to be a data scientist to use these tools. Here's what's happening under the hood — in plain English.
Think of it like a credit score — but for frailty risk in a community. We look at 17 different things about an area. Each one gets a number between 0 and 100, where 50 means exactly average for England. Higher than 50 means that area has more risk than England average. We then blend all 17 together — some counted more heavily than others — to get one final score.
Falls, hip fractures, winter deaths, loneliness, dementia diagnosis rate, antidepressant prescribing and more — all from real NHS sources.
Each signal is converted to a 0–100 number. 50 = England average. 60 = 20% worse than England. This lets us compare falls rates and prescribing side by side.
Living alone at 75+ carries 13% of the final score — the strongest single predictor. Diuretic prescribing carries 1%. All 17 weights add up to exactly 100%.
The weighted average of all 17 signals becomes the FEP score. A score of 65 means that district is substantially more at-risk than England across multiple measures simultaneously.
Ranked highest to lowest. Scores are grounded against 14 real NHS signals — refreshed quarterly.
→ Open the map to see these scores visualised on the district boundaries and export a commissioner briefing PDF.
The scoring engine builds the geographic risk picture. The map turns it into something a commissioner can act on immediately — and export as a briefing document for a PCN meeting.
Live ONS district boundaries for Kent and Medway, colour-coded by Frailty Emergence Probability score. Click any district for signal breakdown and recommendations. Download a commissioner briefing PDF in one click.
Configure signal weights across 17 public data domains, run the composite scoring model, and explore ranked zone results. Supports commissioner-configurable weighting — adjust to prioritise deprivation, polypharmacy, or isolation as the dominant signal.
This tool suite is Layer 2 of a five-layer population frailty intelligence system. Each layer feeds the next — from public data ingestion through to clinical triage and feedback.
Every signal in the FEP model uses publicly available data — free to access, citable in a commissioner briefing, and updatable without licensing costs. The value is in the composite, not the inputs.
PCNs have a statutory duty to proactively identify and support their over-75 population. This tool gives them the geographic intelligence layer they currently lack — and the screening pathway to act on it.